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In the field of the behavioral finance is very popularly belief that investors in the majority are self-confident. They are included into dangerous bargains, which do not bring profit and, in the end, finish with the smaller account than those, who do smaller quantity of bargains.

Certificates in favor of this hypothesis are received at original research by professors of finance Brad Barber and Terrance Odean. They have analyzed a condition of accounts of a considerable quantity of Internet traders. A subgroup identified as «self-confident», showed essential successes in the beginning of the period of supervision, but has ended with more pitiable balance in the end, in comparison with no so confident investors. Self-confident investors make much more bargains, than the others, reaching thus no big profitableness. Making much more bargains, they have paid more than commissions, which, in turn, have led to account aggravation. Young men age about thirty years and, thus, apparently, have appeared self-confident investors, basically as though self-confidence and propensity to overwork trade is inherent in this age. Though in this serious research it is supposed that some investors are more self-confident in comparison with others, in it wasn’t used any psychological measure of self-confidence, or optimism that was possible to evaluate this line. It was used some kind of an assumption that to identify self-confidence probably on bigger quantity of bargains. But self-confidence is line of the person. To show influence of optimism and self-confidence in trading, it is necessary to measure this line. The science moves forward and establishes limits and restrictions on the general conclusions. Here are necessary additional researches that it was possible to contemplate this problem.

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Research of doctor James Felton and his colleagues throws light on this communication between results of trade and self-confidence. University students of a financial rate participated in 13-week modeling. To each participant it was given virtual 500,000$ for investment. There were, however, and some real stimulus for success in modeling. Students could win 500$ if somebody will appear in the top quarter following the results of the test. Optimism has been measured by means of reliable and valid psychological scale. Dangerous investments were advanced, as investment of capital to futures and options and as number of the bargains made throughout these 13 weeks. Men and women did not differ on optimism levels, but optimistic men did more dangerous bargains (futures, options, number of bargains) than pessimistic men, pessimistic women, or optimistic women. Unlike research Barber and Odean, the optimists doing more dangerous bargains, seemingly, did not have any negative consequences. Final sizes of accounts did not differ between men and women, or between optimists and pessimists.

So, is it bad to be the optimistic trader? The verdict still is not present. Additional researches are necessary. Nevertheless, most likely, not the best idea – to be the optimist and to make bargains without carefully studying of risk, restriction of a reporting limit or use of protective stops. But it is possible that are useful moderate optimism and reliance. Doctor Felton indicates that pessimists often panic, are frightened and lower hands when get to unprofitable operation. The moderate quantity of optimism, on the contrary, guarantees, that even in unprofitable bargain, the optimist will find the information without delay and will make the informed decision. In the end it a little like walking on a rope between extreme unrealistic optimism and extreme wearisome pessimism. A finding of confident balance is a key to consistently profitable trade.

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